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BMJ Public Health

BMJ

Preprints posted in the last 90 days, ranked by how well they match BMJ Public Health's content profile, based on 25 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.03% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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''Circumstantial Determinants'': An Efficient Approach to Reaching People in Need of HIV Prevention?

Bagnay, S. H.; Gregson, S.; Skovdal, M.; Maswera, R.; Moorhouse, L. R.; Ncube, G.; Tsenesa, B.; Mandizvidza, P.; Pickles, M.; Garnett, G. P.; Mugurungi, O.; Nyamukapa, C.

2026-06-22 hiv aids 10.64898/2026.06.18.26355534 medRxiv
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HIV prevention and testing programmes primarily reach people who self-refer or attend routine health services. Higher-risk individuals are missed if they are healthy, under-estimate their risk of infection or under-report sexual risk-behaviours. We assess a new approach to address limitations in existing programmes by targeting HIV services on ''Circumstantial Determinants'' (CDs) of HIV risk - the social circumstances, settings, and norms associated with behaviours that increase risk of HIV acquisition. Data on potential CDs and sexual behaviour were collected in a population survey in Zimbabwe in 2018/19 (N=9141). HIV-negative individuals reporting [≥] 1 sexual risk-behaviours were defined as the 'priority population' for HIV prevention. For each sex, six circumstantial determinants were associated with being in the priority population (aOR [≥] 1.30; p [≤] 0.01). Reach and efficiency of CDs (and combinations) were calculated; ROC curve algorithms evaluated their ability to identify priority population membership; and HIV prevention condom cascades were compared between CD-defined priority population subgroups. Example findings include that targeting men at bars and beerhalls could reach 48.5% of the priority population and 25.1% of lower-risk men. These percentages increase to 77.1% and 53.7% if men with poor mental health, no religious affiliation, negative social capital, or living on agricultural estates are also targeted. Targeting women with poor mental health could reach 32.0% of the priority population and 21.3% of lower-risk women. Targeting additional circumstantial determinants increases these percentages to 54.1% and 37.5%, respectively. Cascade barriers to condom use differed between CD-defined subgroups. The Circumstantial Determinants approach demonstrates proof-of-concept potential to strengthen HIV prevention services.

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Rising rates of young people Not in Education, Employment, or Training (NEET) explained by higher prevalence of physical and psychological ill health: a 15-year UK study

Wels, J.; Kelly, D.; Smeeth, D.; Bridger Staatz, C.; Li, Z.; Ploubidis, G.; Chaturvedi, N.; Patalay, P.

2026-08-12 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.11.26360217 medRxiv
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Background: Rising rates of young people Not in Education, Employment, or Training (NEET) in the UK have recently coincided with declining youth physical and mental health but no study has asked whether this reflects a growing proportion of young people with health problems (prevalence) or those with health problems becoming more likely to be NEET (penalty). Methods: Using 15 years of Understanding Society data (2009-23), we analysed 15,242 respondents aged 16-24 (66,160 observations). We employed three complementary approaches: descriptive trends, Blinder-Oaxaca-Kitagawa (BO) probit decomposition comparing 2009-2013 and 2019-2023 against a 2014-2018 reference period, and fixed-effects (FE) Poisson models with lagged health status. Exposures included self-reported health conditions or disability (SRHD), psychological distress , diagnosed conditions and socio-demographic factors. Findings: NEET rates were lowest in 2014-18 (10.5-11.5%) and higher in 2009-13 (12-15%) and 2019-23 (15-16%). Higher prevalence of SRHD, psychological distress, diagnosed depression and multimorbidity explained changes in NEET prevalence across both the 2009-13 to 2014-2018 and 2014-18 to 2019-23 periods. No change in penalty was observed for any health variable across periods, except for an increase in the penalty for SRHD between the 2009-13 to 2014-18 periods. Interpretation: Rising NEET rates among UK youth are driven largely by more young people having physical and psychological ill health. Whilst labour market and education accommodations remain important, reducing NEET rates will require reversing the decline in youth health, not just accommodating it.

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Half of alcohol, drug, and self-harm presentations cannot be identified in coded emergency department data: a diagnostic accuracy study of a large language model

Humphries, C.; Brett, J.; Gruber, F.; James, E.; McKendrick, T. I.; McNairn, K. C.; Miell, A.; O'Brien, R.; Rahman, F.; Schölin, L.; Stewart, M.; Casey, A.

2026-08-31 health informatics 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361443 medRxiv
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Objective To measure the accuracy of clinical coding, clinician review, and a locally deployed large language model (LLM) in identifying alcohol, drug, and self-harm involvement in emergency department (ED) attendances, and quantify prevalence. Design Two-phase diagnostic accuracy study. In a validation week, the identification strategies were assessed against a conflict-adjudicated reference standard (n=2,256); the LLM was then applied to n=105,096 annual attendances at the same site. Setting UK Type 1 Emergency Department treating patients [&ge;]16yrs. Main outcome measures Prevalence quantification compared with the reference standard; sensitivity, specificity, and balanced accuracy of each strategy; monthly identification rates and adjusted annual prevalence. Results The reference standard identified 12.1% of attendances as involving alcohol, drugs, or self-harm (coding 6.0%; clinician 10.0%, LLM 15.6%). LLM balanced accuracy matched or outperformed clinician review in all three domains (alcohol 0.942 v 0.930, p=0.635; drug 0.959 v 0.791, p<0.001; self-harm 0.982 v 0.908, p=0.004). Coding recorded 1.07 domains per identified patient against 1.32 in the reference standard. Adjusted annual prevalence corresponded to 12,890 domain involvements per year not identifiable in coded data. Subdomain classification found at least 81.6% of self-harm attendances required medical assessment for injury or overdose before psychiatric review. Conclusions Clinical coding identified fewer than half of presentations involving alcohol, drugs, and self-harm and rarely captured co-occurring domains; under-recording was present across a full year. A locally deployed LLM generated more complete structured data from existing clinical text within NHS infrastructure, at a scale which is not feasible for manual review.

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Compounding Associations Of Education And Social Care Support On Hospital Costs Throughout Childhood

Lau, Y.-S.; Gilbert, R. E.; Parra, G. P.; Sutton, M.

2026-08-12 health economics 10.64898/2026.08.11.26360173 medRxiv
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Abstract Objective To describe variation in hospital costs among children with different combinations of health conditions, special educational needs or disability (SEND) and children social care (CSC) indicators. Study Setting and Design This cross-sectional study used regression analysis to test whether two-way and three-way interactions of cross-public sector service use (health, education and social care) are associated with higher hospital costs in England. Data Sources and Analytic Sample Hospital care costs between April 2022 and March 2023 for the 8.9 million children aged 5-18 years were obtained from linked administrative hospital, education or social care data in the ECHILD database. Children were classified into eight categories based on combinations of indicators of chronic health conditions, SEND or CSC. Principal Findings Over one-third (35.4%) of children had some hospital costs during the year. Average costs were 317GBP for all children and 895GBP for children with non-zero hospital costs. By age 18, few children had no indicator in any sector (35.1% of boys, 43.7% of girls) and indicators in all three sectors were not rare (7.1% of boys, 6.2% of girls). At age 5, children with indicators recorded in all three sectors had the highest hospital costs (2,952GBP for boys and 3,674GBP for girls). At age 18, males and females with indicators in all three sectors accounted for 21% and 23% of hospital costs, respectively. SEND and social care indicators without chronic health conditions were associated with only slightly higher hospital costs. Hospital costs were much higher for children with SEND if they also had a chronic health condition. Hospital costs were only higher for children with social care if they also had both a chronic health condition and SEND. Conclusions. Taking account of additional support from non-health sectors is important for understanding health sector costs. The compounding associations between use of other public sectors on health sector costs indicates scope for targeting of integrated care.

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Investigation of mediating effects of sexual behaviours on the effect of a novel digital intervention on sexually transmitted reinfections: secondary analysis of a randomised controlled trial

Landray, I.; Carpenter, J.; Free, C.

2026-09-03 sexual and reproductive health 10.64898/2026.08.29.26361435 medRxiv
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Background Preventing sexually transmitted re-infections brings health benefits and can be significantly less costly than treating their sequelae. Safetxt is a potential novel digital intervention developed to promote safer sexual behaviours. However, a recent randomised controlled trial of safetxt found no effect on reinfection at 1 year (OR 1.13, 95%CI: 0.98-1.31). We investigated if safetxt's effect was mediated through sexually risky behaviours. Methods We used data from 6248 young people with STIs from 92 UK sexual health clinics. The direct and indirect effects of safetxt on reinfection were estimated using the counterfactual approach. Condom use at last sexual encounter, number of sexual partners and STI testing were assessed as mediators. These were analysed singly and together, using regression models and a formal weighting approach. The assumptions of each approach were considered and tested. Analyses were repeated in the subgroup showing the most promising effect of safetxt: men who have sex with men or with men and women (MSM/MSMW). Results No evidence was found for the total, indirect or direct effects differing from the null. Despite not being significant, for MSM/MSMW, some of safetxt's effect on reducing reinfection was identified as being offset through its effect on number of sexual partners. Conclusions There was no evidence that safetxt's effect on reinfection was mediated through changes in sexually risky behaviours. Adaptations to specifically target these behaviours are unlikely to improve safetxt's overall effect. However, improving safetxt's effect on the number of sexual partners a participant has may improve its effect for MSM/MSMW.

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Adolescent health and Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET) in young adulthood: Evidence from a UK prospective longitudinal study

Kelly, D. P.; Wels, J.; Patalay, P.

2026-08-17 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.13.26360381 medRxiv
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Background: High rates of young people who are not in education, employment or training (NEET) are a major societal concern in the UK. Whilst other studies have highlighted that adolescent health can predict NEET status in young adulthood, robust and recent longitudinal evidence remains limited. Methods: This study used data from the Millennium Cohort Study, a longitudinal study of people born in the UK in the early 2000s, to estimate the extent to which mental health conditions, physical health conditions and health behaviours during adolescence predict NEET status in early adulthood (median age: 23). Co-occurrence of exposures was also considered and population attributable fractions were calculated to account for differences in exposure prevalence. Results: Among 8,374 young people, 12.5% were NEET at age 23; approximately two thirds were seeking work and one third were economically inactive. Estimates adjusted for demographic factors indicated that multiple health exposures increased risk of being NEET at age 23, with mental health conditions predicting greater risk than physical health conditions and health behaviours. For instance, a longstanding mental health condition more than doubled the risk of being NEET (adjusted relative risk [aRR] = 2.39, 95% CIs = 1.85, 3.09), while autism (aRR = 3.60, 95% CIs = 2.69, 4.83) and ADHD (aRR = 3.25, 95% CIs = 2.38, 4.44) more than tripled the risk. A greater number of reported adolescent mental health conditions was associated with greater risk of being NEET in young adulthood. Obesity predicted being NEET at age 23 (aRR = 1.54, 95% CIs = 1.18, 2.01) and obesity accompanied by a mental health condition further increased risk (aRR = 2.01, 95% CIs = 1.38, 2.93). Follow-up analyses indicated that associations between adolescent mental health and young adult NEET status were more pronounced for females than males and for the economically inactive than those seeking work. Conclusions: Findings indicate that adolescent health, especially mental health, strongly predicts being NEET in early adulthood. Early, integrated health and education interventions may help reduce later educational and labour market disengagement.

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Temporal Patterns and Association Between FIFA World Cup Tournament Periods and Emergency Department-Treated Injuries

Kumar, R. S. P.; Ye, J.

2026-07-13 health informatics 10.64898/2026.07.10.26357721 medRxiv
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Background: Major soccer tournaments may temporarily change recreational soccer activity, community gatherings, and injury-prevention needs, but evidence for population-level emergency department (ED) injury patterns during these events is limited. Understanding whether ED-treated soccer injury burden changes during Men's FIFA World Cup periods may help inform surveillance readiness and prevention planning for future tournaments. Objective: To evaluate whether Men's FIFA World Cup tournament periods temporally coincided with changes in ED-treated soccer-coded injury burden in the United States and to assess the implications for public health surveillance and injury-prevention preparedness. Methods: We conducted a retrospective, repeated cross-sectional calendar-period analysis of publicly available national ED injury surveillance records from 1999 through 2025. Soccer-coded injuries were identified using product code 1267 in any available product field. The primary exposure was the set of official Men's FIFA World Cup tournament dates from 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022. Tournament dates were compared with matched same-calendar dates in adjacent years, excluding dates that overlapped other FIFA World Cup tournament windows. The primary estimands were the mean daily difference and ratio in weighted national ED-treated soccer-coded injury estimates between tournament and matched-control periods. Results: The analytic cohort included 170,679 soccer-coded ED cases, corresponding to an estimated 5,366,681 ED-treated soccer-coded injuries nationally. Mean daily weighted estimates were 453.1 during Men's World Cup tournament dates and 384.1 during matched control dates. The absolute mean daily difference was 68.9 injuries per day (95% CI, -0.5 to 138.3), and the mean daily ratio was 1.18 (95% CI, 1.00 to 1.39). Tournament-specific estimates were heterogeneous, with a near-null estimate for the 2022 winter tournament and higher estimates for prior summer tournaments. Conclusions: Men's FIFA World Cup periods were associated with a modest, imprecise increase in mean daily ED-treated soccer-coded injury estimates, but the findings were heterogeneous and compatible with no difference to a moderate increase. These results should be interpreted as ecological and hypothesis-generating rather than causal. The primary implication is not that World Cup tournaments directly cause injuries, but that major soccer events provide a practical opportunity for real-time ED injury surveillance, targeted recreational soccer injury-prevention messaging, concussion awareness, and coordinated preparedness for community and fan-event injury patterns during future tournaments.

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Reduced maternal healthcare interactions with general practice in the postnatal period during the COVID-19 pandemic, a cohort study of Greater Manchester residents.

Cornett, C.; Tilston, G.; Martin, G.; Palin, V.

2026-08-22 health informatics 10.64898/2026.08.18.26360757 medRxiv
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Background: Maternal postpartum checks with a general practitioner (GP) are recognised as an essential service in England and vital for recovery after pregnancy and reducing risk of long-term morbidity. Despite this, its reported fewer than of women have a record of the examination in the recommended 6-8 weeks, with observed disparities in uptake nationally. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted delivery of these checks nationally, but there is limited data on the impact of the pandemic and its recovery for regional populations representing diversity and areas of dense poverty and ethnic minority populations. This study utilised region level data to assess the impact of COVID-19 on postnatal care. Methods: Anonymised electronic health records with clinical coded birth events for females, aged 16-49 years, were analysed for patients registered with a GP using the Greater Manchester Care Record (GMCR) between January 2018 and August 2023. Unique delivery episodes were defined and monthly rates calculated separately for women with a postnatal-related code within 4-, 6-, 8-, or 12-weeks or 1 year follow-up. Rates were also generated by key maternal demographics to assess any differences in postpartum care. Interrupted time series, modelling the onset of the pandemic estimated the IRR of 0.49 (95% CI 0.40-0.58). To assess the impact of maternal characteristics on the odds of non-attendance at examination, a logistic regression adjusting for various maternal characteristics was fitted. Results: There were 114,874 unique delivery episodes, relating to 85,076 women in the 12-week follow up cohort; 72,595 episodes to 55,784 women in 8-weeks and 28,846 episodes to 24,018 women in 6-weeks. The rate of postpartum checks was greater the longer the follow-up period. For checks within 8 weeks the first lockdown reduced from ~325 per 1000 delivery episodes in 2019 to 225 per 1000 by April 2020 (30.8%), which remained low, before returning to pre-pandemic rates by rates by October 2022. Rates remained lower overall for Black, or Asian women compared to White. Conclusion: The COVID-19 pandemic reduced postnatal follow-up in primary care across Greater Manchester, with rates frequently falling outside the recommended 6-8 week window. Significant disparities exist in the provision and uptake of these services. Improved integration of data across care sites, combined with enhanced risk management, could increase equity in access and support the timely delivery of care for those at greatest risk of postnatal complications and longer-term health issues.

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Characterizing adolescent-reported experiences of food insecurity in the ten Canadian provinces in 2019, 2020, and 2021: A cross-sectional analysis

Pepetone, A.; Frongillo, E. A.; Vanderlee, L.; Dodd, W.; Wallace, M. P.; Dubin, J. A.; Dodd, K. W.; Hammond, D.; Kirkpatrick, S. I.

2026-07-13 nutrition 10.64898/2026.07.09.26357674 medRxiv
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Objectives: Estimate the prevalence and sociodemographic correlates of adolescent-reported food insecurity experiences from 2019-2021. Methods: Repeat cross-sectional data were collected in November-December 2019, 2020, and 2021 from adolescents aged 10-17 years living in the ten Canadian provinces (n = 11,057). The prevalence of ten items and five food insecurity subconstructs based on the 10-item Child Food Insecurity Experiences Scale was estimated. Weighted multinomial logistic regression assessed associations between sociodemographic characteristics and food insecurity experiences as a four-level (no, few, several, or many experiences) variable. Results: Across 2019-2021 among adolescents, the prevalence of worrying about food scarcity ranged between 18.4%-22.5%, worrying about parental/guardian ability to get food ranged between 22.8%-26.9%, and not being able to get the food they wanted ranged between 23.5%-26.1%. Close to or above one in four adolescents affirmed the uncertainty (range: 26.9%-29.9%) and compromised diet quality or preferences (range: 23.5%-26.1%) subconstructs. In 2021, adolescents identifying as Black had a higher relative risk ratio of few food insecurity experiences (adjusted relative risk ratio (ARRR): 2.04 [95% CI: 1.20, 3.47], p-value: <0.01) and adolescents identifying as Indigenous had a higher relative risk ratio of several food insecurity experiences (2.38 [1.10, 5.15], p-value 0.03) compared to adolescents identifying as White. The relative risk ratio of having few, several, or many food insecurity experiences also differed by age, sex-at-birth, perceived income adequacy, and region. Conclusion: The type and number of experiences reported underscores the value of directly measuring food insecurity. Interventions to mitigate food insecurity's adverse consequences are warranted.

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Household hunger trajectories and mental health symptoms of adolescent girls and young women in rural South Africa: an HPTN-068 longitudinal study

Chakraborty, R.; Rosenberg, M.; Weigel, M. M.; Pettifor, A.; Kahn, K.; Gomez-Olive, F. X.

2026-09-03 public and global health 10.64898/2026.09.01.26361988 medRxiv
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Purpose Despite the high documented prevalence of hunger and poor mental health in adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) in South Africa, this relationship remains understudied, with existing studies limited by their cross-sectional designs. This longitudinal study aimed to identify the association of hunger trajectories with anxiety and depressive symptoms, and hope in AGYW. Methods We used secondary data from the HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) -068 conducted in rural Agincourt, South Africa. Complete data from 1779 AGYW collected at baseline (2011/12) and three annual follow-up visits were used. Hunger trajectories, measured using the Household Hunger Scale, were estimated via Group-Based Trajectory Modelling. Self-reported incident anxiety and depressive symptoms and hope were assessed based on AGYWs last two follow-up visits. Covariate adjusted modified Poisson regression models estimated the association between hunger trajectories and incident anxiety symptoms, incident depressive symptoms, and hope. Results Moderate-severe hunger was prevalent in 11.0%, 10.8%, and 6.0% of the households at baseline, follow-up 1, and 2, respectively. Incident anxiety symptoms were reported by 4.5%, incident depressive symptoms by 20.0% and hopelessness by 52.8% of the AGYW. Two hunger trajectories were identified- no hunger (82%) and marginal hunger (18%). Hunger trajectories were not associated with incident anxiety symptoms [RR:1.09, 95% CI: 0.55, 2.18], incident depressive symptoms [RR: 0.97; 95% CI: 0.72, 1.33] nor hope [RR: 1.00; 95% CI: 0.81, 1.23] in AGYW. Conclusion Better understanding of the factors that promote resiliency and mental health of AGYW in this setting is warranted to inform the design of interventions.

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Effect of Lowering the Drink-Driving Blood Alcohol Limit in Scotland on Road Traffic Crashes: a Synthetic Difference-in-Differences Study

Jafari, M.; Anupriya, A.; Graham, D. J.

2026-06-22 health policy 10.64898/2026.06.18.26355950 medRxiv
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Objective: To evaluate the road safety impact arising from Scotlands 2014 reduction in the legal blood alcohol concentration (BAC) limit for drivers, and to assess whether the effect of the reform varied across different spatial contexts. Design: A quasi-experimental statistical longitudinal study using a Synthetic Difference-in-Differences (SDID) approach. Setting: Small-area panel data for Great Britain, with areas (Middle-layer Super Output Areas, MSOAs, in England and Wales and Intermediate Zones, IZs, in Scotland) classed into control and treatment groups according to whether they were exposed to Scotlands BAC reform. The control and treatment groups comprise 7088 spatial units in England and Wales and 852 spatial units in Scotland, respectively, observed over the period 2008-2019. Participants: The study primarily analyses police-reported road traffic collision data from the UK Department for Transports STATS19 system. Data were analysed at the MSOA/IZ level. This is a secondary dataset, and we therefore did not involve patients or the public in formulating the research question, determining outcome measures, or designing and conducting the study. Main Outcome Measures: The main outcome measures were log-transformed rates of total road traffic crashes, and (weekend) night-time crashes (22:00-04:00) per 100,000 population. The latter is used as a proxy measure for drunk driving. Results: Our results indicate that the reduction in the legal BAC limit led to statistically significant declines in road traffic crash rates. Aggregate estimates suggest reductions of 12.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): [-13.7%, -10.3%]) in total crashes, 15.6% (95% CI: [-20.7%, -10.2%]) in night-time crashes, and 12.4% (95% CI: [-16.7%, -7.9%]) in weekend night-time crashes. We also find substantial heterogeneity in treatment effects across spatial contexts. Effects were strongest in rural and less densely populated areas, where reductions exceeded 16% (95% CI: [-18.7%, -13.9%]) for total crashes and reached up to 29.6% (95% CI: [-35.8%, -22.8%]) for night-time and 21.4% (95% CI: [-28.3%, -13.9%]) for weekend night-time crashes. Moderate but statistically significant effects were also observed in dense urban areas, whereas effects in suburban and transitional areas were smaller and not statistically significant. Conclusions: Our analysis suggests that lowering the legal BAC limit in Scotland led to meaningful reductions in road traffic crashes, particularly during higher-risk periods and in rural areas. The findings further suggest that the effectiveness of BAC regulation may vary across local contexts, highlighting the importance of accounting for spatial heterogeneity when evaluating road safety policies.

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Mental health and health behaviours in adolescence and risk of being NEET from ages 16 to 24: longitudinal findings from the UKHLS

Li, Z.; Wels, J.; Chaturvedi, N.; Patalay, P.

2026-08-14 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.12.26360290 medRxiv
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Background: Young people who are Not in Education, Employment, or Training (NEET) represent a major public health and societal challenge. Existing evidence has linked adolescent mental health problems and health risk behaviours to NEET but has largely treated NEET as a static, rather than longitudinal outcome and overlooked the combined effects of multiple health conditions. Methods: Using data from 5,262 participants born between 1993 and 2000 in the UK Household Longitudinal Study, this study examined the independent and combined associations of adolescent mental health problems (emotional symptoms, conduct problems, hyperactivity) and health risk behaviours (regular smoking, drug use, alcohol use, and high social media use) with ever-NEET status, NEET chronicity, and NEET trajectories from ages 16 to 24, using modified Poisson, proportional odds, and multilevel logistic regression models, respectively. Findings: All mental health problems were associated with ever-NEET status (RRs 1.24-1.27) and NEET chronicity (ORs 1.41-1.98); emotional symptoms showed a widening disadvantage with age, while the disadvantages associated with conduct problems and hyperactivity remained stable. Among health risk behaviours, regular smoking showed the strongest and most persistent relationships with NEET (ever-NEET RR 1.54; chronicity OR 1.64); drug use was related to ever-NEET status (RR 1.37) and an increasing disadvantage after age 21-22, while alcohol use and social media use showed limited associations. NEET risk generally increased with the number of co-occurring conditions, but for recurrent NEET (three or more occasions), risk was only elevated at three or more co-occurring conditions. Interpretation: Adolescent health exposures were associated with NEET risk during ages 16-24, but the strength and pattern varied by exposure and outcome, offering potential insights into the timing and emphasis of any interventions.

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Can Demographic and Health Surveys (2007-2024) Capture Alcohol Use Trends in Zambia?

Habbanti, S.; Munkombwe, P.; Zyambo, C.

2026-08-19 health systems and quality improvement 10.64898/2026.08.18.26360685 medRxiv
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Background Alcohol is a leading modifiable risk factor for non-communicable disease. Zambia's National Alcohol Policy and the World Health Organization's target of a 10% relative reduction in the harmful use of alcohol both require that the trend be monitored. Alcohol items appear in four rounds of the Zambia Demographic and Health Survey (ZDHS), and those rounds are widely treated as a trend series, although whether they are one has never been tested. Methods Secondary analysis of ZDHS 2007, 2013-14, 2018 and 2024 (women aged 15-49, men aged 15-59). A direct current-use item is available in three rounds, with three different instruments for men and two for women. Four identification strategies were applied in ascending order of assumption: nesting bounds, which exploit the fact that a seven-day window falls within a thirty-day window and that within undated current status; restriction to the fieldwork months common to both rounds; a lifetime-use analogue available in 2024; and an instrument-constant partner-report series available in all four rounds, validated by linking each woman to her co-resident husband. Estimation throughout was design-based. Results The conventional series suggests a fall in current drinking among men from 42.0% (95% CI 39.9-44.1) in 2007 to 28.2% (95% CI 27.0-29.3) in 2024, and among women from 11.1% (95% CI 9.9-12.4) to 8.8% (95% CI 8.0-9.6). Neither change is sign-identified. Placed on a common thirty-day basis with matched fieldwork months, the 2013-14 to 2024 change lies between -7.6 and +1.2 percentage points for men and between -0.2 and +3.7 for women. The instrument-constant proxy fell from 53.7% in 2007 to 37.7% in 2018, then plateaued at 37.0% in 2024; a constant-decline model is rejected (Q = 15.9, 2 df, p = 0.0003). Sensitivity of the proxy against husbands' own reports fell from 86.0% to 66.8%. The 2024 cross-section is unaffected and is reported in full. Conclusions These data do not establish the apparent national decline in alcohol use. Differences in reported prevalence across ZDHS rounds substantially reflect instrument change, reference-period shift, fieldwork seasonality and decay in proxy reporting. On present evidence Zambia cannot monitor its alcohol commitments from national survey data. Trend monitoring would require a consistent alcohol module restored to the questionnaire, an occasion-based heavy-drinking item, and the reporting of fieldwork month.

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Time to PrEP Disengagement and Associated Factors Among Adolescents and Young Adults from Key and Priority Populations in Uganda. A survival Analysis

Mwima, S.; Walwo, S.

2026-07-24 hiv aids 10.64898/2026.07.22.26358724 medRxiv
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Background Adolescents and young adults (AYAs) from key and priority populations face persistent challenges with sustained engagement in HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) care. While PrEP initiation has expanded across sub-Saharan Africa, evidence on long-term retention and determinants of disengagement among AYAs remains limited. We examined time to PrEP disengagement and associated factors among AYAs initiating PrEP in eastern Uganda. Methods We conducted a retrospective longitudinal analysis of routinely collected program data for AYAs aged 15-29 years from key and priority populations who initiated PrEP between 2019 and 2025 at Mbale Regional Referral Hospital. Time to PrEP disengagement was assessed using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression. Multivariable models adjusted for sociodemographic, relational, behavioral, and service delivery factors. Sensitivity analyses redefined the time origin to day 91 following PrEP initiation to reflect the programmatic 90-day grace period. Results Among 3,553 AYAs initiating PrEP, the median time to disengagement was 284 days (95% CI: 273-295). The median age was 24 years (interquartile range [IQR]: 20-26). The probability of remaining engaged in PrEP care declined from 60.1% at 90 days to 20.2% at 365 days. Survival patterns differed significantly by population category and sex at birth but not by age group. In adjusted analyses (N = 3,391), knowledge of a partners HIV status (aHR = 2.04; 95% CI: 1.82-2.29) and initiation through community-based services (aHR = 1.42; 95% CI: 1.17-1.72) were associated with faster disengagement. Married participants had lower hazards of disengagement compared with single participants (aHR = 0.69; 95% CI: 0.64-0.76). Reporting an STI syndrome (aHR = 0.42; 95% CI: 0.32-0.55) or recent gender-based violence (aHR = 0.76; 95% CI: 0.60-0.96) was associated with reduced disengagement. Findings were highly consistent in sensitivity analyses using an alternative risk-period definition. Conclusions PrEP disengagement among AYAs occurs rapidly following initiation, with substantial attrition within the first year. Relational factors, service delivery modality, and population-specific vulnerabilities strongly shape retention trajectories. These findings underscore the need for risk-responsive, differentiated PrEP delivery strategies that strengthen partner-based services, integrate STI and GBV screening, and adapt retention support for AYAs in community and facility settings.

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Developing a Unified Criminal Justice Pathway into Drug and Alcohol Treatment from Police Custody: A Public Health Service Evaluation and Pathway-Design Project in Blackpool, United Kingdom

Badmos, A. O.; AbdulKareem, A. O.; Mills, J.; Gawne, A.; Idris, T.

2026-06-10 health systems and quality improvement 10.64898/2026.06.07.26355095 medRxiv
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Introduction: Blackpool, England's most deprived local authority, has the highest drug-related death rate in the country. People in police custody with problem substance use are a key Core20PLUS5 inclusion-health group, yet referral from the police into structured drug and alcohol treatment is fragmented and relies heavily on self-report. We evaluated the current police-to-treatment route in Blackpool and designed an evidence-informed unified pathway. Materials and Methods: A mixed-methods service evaluation and pathway-design project was conducted during a six-month General Practice / Public Health rotation. Routinely collected referral data from Horizon (the local specialist drug and alcohol service) covering the 47-month period from December 2019 to October 2023 were analysed. Findings were triangulated with national policy, the Project ADDER and Liaison and Diversion evaluations, and the international evidence on police-led pre-arrest diversion. Results: Of 5,900 total referrals into Horizon over 47 months, only 269 (4.56%) originated from the police. Police referrals accounted for fewer than 5% of monthly referrals in 30 of 47 months, for 5 to 9.9% in 16 months, and for >/= 10% in only one month (10.8%, December 2022). Blackpool recorded 76 drug-misuse deaths in 2019-21 (19.4 per 100,000, approximately four times the England rate). A six-step unified pathway is proposed: Initiate Referral (opt-out, from ADDER Police and Liaison and Diversion); Initial Assessment; Tailored Treatment Plan; Continuous Support; Collaboration and Monitoring; and Evaluation and Adjustment. Conclusions: Police contact is markedly under-used as a gateway to treatment despite Blackpool having the highest drug-related mortality in England. An opt-out, multi-agency pathway anchored in Core20PLUS5 has the potential to narrow the treatment gap, reduce re-offending, and address the structural health inequalities that drive premature mortality.

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Pleasure and Peril: The association between sexual risk behavior and sexual pleasure in young adults from the Generation R Study

van Stokkom, H.; Dekker, L. P.; Pastoor, H.; Enthoven, C.

2026-08-06 sexual and reproductive health 10.64898/2026.08.04.26359675 medRxiv
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BACKGROUND: Sexual pleasure is integral to sexual health, offering important physical and mental benefits. Yet, sex education programs often neglect pleasure, focusing instead on preventing sexual risk behaviors (SRBs), which young adults are particularly vulnerable to. AIM: This study investigates the association between SRBs and sexual pleasure in young adults and whether sex assigned at birth moderates this relationship. METHODS: Embedded within the Generation R cohort, 1010 young adults completed an online questionnaire assessing sexual pleasure using the six subscales of the Amsterdam Sexual Pleasure Inventory (ASPI 1.0), Arousal Enjoyment, Enjoyment-Related Self-Efficacy, Enjoyment-Related Self-Worth, Interaction Enjoyment, Bonding Enjoyment, and Sexual Experience Enjoyment, and various SRBs including sexual debut <15 years, six or more lifetime partners, frequent unprotected sex, and substance use during sex. Multiple linear regression analyses were performed for each SRB and sexual pleasure subscale, adjusting for demographics, self-esteem, relationship status, socioeconomic status, and psychopathology, with additional stratification by sex assigned at birth. OUTCOMES: The primary outcome measure is sexual pleasure, measured across six domains, examined in relation to SRBs. RESULTS: Fully adjusted regression analyses showed that engaging in SRB was positively associated with several dimensions of sexual pleasure. All SRBs were associated with higher Enjoyment-Related Self-Efficacy (ERSE) scores (p<0.002). Early sexual debut was additionally linked to higher Interaction Enjoyment scores, while having six or more lifetime partners was associated with increased Enjoyment-Related Self-Worth and Sexual Experience Enjoyment scores (p<0.002). Some associations, particularly involving ERSE, were only significant among males. Individuals without partnered sexual experience reported lower sexual pleasure scores. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Incorporating sexual pleasure into sex education could promote a more balanced, realistic understanding of sexuality among young adults, emphasizing both enjoyment and responsible sexual decision-making. STRENGHTS & LIMITATIONS: Key strengths of this study are the use of the multidimensional Amsterdam Sexual Pleasure Inventory (ASPI 1.0) and the large population-based cohort study design, enabling a nuanced and generalizable analysis. This study is limited by potential selection and reporting bias, the cross-sectional design, residual confounding, and the absence of universally agreed-upon thresholds for defining SRBs. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest there is a positive association between engagement in SRB and sexual pleasure, possibly reflecting greater overall sexual experience. The stronger associations observed among males might reflect gendered differences in the role of self-esteem and societal expectations.

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Nutritional screening in mental health and learning disability inpatient services: Dietitians perspectives on practices, barriers and tool suitability

Smith, S.; Leong, A.; Burke, G.; Guerin, R.

2026-08-27 nutrition 10.64898/2026.08.25.26361293 medRxiv
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Introduction People with severe mental illness (SMI) and learning disabilities (LD) experience significant health inequalities, with diet-related conditions contributing substantially to early and preventable death. Despite high levels of nutritional risk, the presence and effectiveness of nutritional screening in mental health (MH) and LD settings remains under-researched. This study aimed to investigate nutritional screening practices in UK inpatient MH and LD services from the perspectives of dietitians. Methods A cross-sectional mixed-methods study was conducted using a novel 22-question online survey. Data was collected via the British Dietetic Association Mental Health Specialist Group (April-June 2025). Quantitative data was analysed descriptively and qualitative data by reflexive thematic analysis. Findings were integrated and presented thematically. Ethical approval was granted by Teesside University (2025Mar26544). Results Forty-seven dietitians participated, most with substantial dietetic experience, from a range of MH settings. Screening practices were widely established and supported by policy and audit. However, participants reported low confidence in screening translating into meaningful patient care. Barriers to screening included appropriateness of available tools, time constraints, difficulty engaging distressed patients and poor prioritisation of physical health. Digital integration and wider infrastructure were also important. Dietitians rarely undertook screening directly, instead holding secondary or leadership roles, while screening was most often completed by nursing staff who were often perceived to place limited importance on the process. Existing tools, particularly the Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST), were viewed as insufficiently capturing the broader nutritional risks relevant to MH/LD populations, leading some services to adopt bespoke, unvalidated tools. Conclusion Concerns regarding the suitability of existing nutritional screening tools in MH/LD settings are consistent with previous literature. However, we suggest cautious use of unvalidated bespoke tools. Whilst there was no clear front runner, MH specific tools such as the St Andrews Nutrition Screening Instrument (SANSI) and the NutriMental Screener warrant further evaluation. Importantly, findings indicate that optimising tool choice alone is unlikely to improve screening effectiveness. Nutritional screening must be embedded within clear care pathways, supported by organisational leadership, digital infrastructure, and multiprofessional engagement to move beyond procedural completion and support meaningful clinical action to improve patient care.

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Patterns of healthcare use in people with narcolepsy: a population-based cohort study in England

Strongman, H.; Belot, A.; Mistry, H.; Nolte, E.; Eriksson, S. H.; Miller, M. A.; Smith, I. E.; Warren-Gash, C.; Bhaskaran, K.

2026-07-27 health systems and quality improvement 10.64898/2026.07.23.26358663 medRxiv
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People with narcolepsy experience delays in diagnosis and inconsistent post-diagnosis care, but the pattern and scale of their healthcare use is poorly described. In this population-based cohort study, we used primary care and linked hospital activity data to compare healthcare use in people with narcolepsy (n=2,772) and a matched comparison group in England (n=13,860). Narcolepsy was defined by a first coded record in primary care or admitted care data between 02 January 1998 and 31 December 2019; this date was the index date for both groups. People with narcolepsy had approximately double the rate of healthcare use in the period from five years before to five years after the index date. Annually, this corresponded on average to an additional 1.9 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.8-2.0) outpatient events, 0.36 (95% CI 0.30-0.42) admitted patient care events, 0.25 (95% CI 0.22-0.29) Accident & Emergency events and 4.3 (95% CI 3.9-4.7) primary care events per person. Service use in all settings peaked at index and remained elevated for at least 15 years either side. The elevated rates of possible-sleep related outpatient events (respiratory, neurology paediatric, and ear nose & throat) peaked in the year including and after the index date, at 1.50 (95% CI 1.41-1.59); before declining to <0.5 visits per person-year after five years. Our findings of sustained elevated use of healthcare by people with narcolepsy across NHS settings may reflect diagnostic delay, comorbidities, and ongoing narcolepsy-related healthcare needs being met largely outside specialist sleep care, highlighting opportunities to improve healthcare services.

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Symptomatic hypermobility as a risk factor for Long COVID with high post-exertional symptom exacerbation: further analysis of data from a retrospective online survey of adults in the United States and United Kingdom

Lubell, J.; Torok, R. A.; Rudy, R. M.; Quadt, L.; Eccles, J. A.

2026-07-01 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.24.26356475 medRxiv
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Background In a retrospective online survey, we assessed the extent to which people with symptomatic hypermobility are at risk of Long COVID with a high degree of post-exertional symptom exacerbation, a form of Long COVID similar to myalgic encephalomyelitis. Methods Participants were 1,816 adults with prior COVID-19 infection; 19.4% reported Long COVID, defined as symptoms persisting [&ge;]3 months. Survey measures identified Long COVID with high post-exertional symptom exacerbation, generalized joint hypermobility (GJH), extreme hypermobility, and a pre-COVID orthostatic/neurocognitive symptom burden (ONS profile). Logistic regression assessed whether ONS profile and hypermobility, together defined as symptomatic hypermobility, were associated with increased risk of Long COVID with post-exertional symptom exacerbation. Results In the full sample, both extreme hypermobility (OR 3.15, 95 % CI 2.00-4.95) and an ONS profile pre-COVID (OR 3.29, 95% CI 2.34-4.61) were strongly predictive of Long COVID with high post-exertional symptom exacerbation. These effects were cumulative, leading to an OR of 9.46 (95% CI 4.93-18.17) for people with both conditions. People who both had an ONS profile pre-COVID and had generalized joint hypermobility also had a higher risk of Long COVID with high post-exertional symptom exacerbation (OR 5.54, 95% CI 3.51-8.75). Conclusions In this dataset, people with symptomatic hypermobility were at high risk of Long COVID with high levels of post-exertional symptom exacerbation. Further research is needed to understand the biological mechanisms of viral-onset illness to promote more effective and targeted treatments tailored to the disease pathways shared by groups of individuals with common vulnerabilities.

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Impact of HIV Self-Testing on Recent HIV Testing Among Women in Uganda: A Propensity Score Matched Analysis Using the 2022 UDHS

Emesu, G. K.; Najjuma, S.; Tiikabulamu, P.; Mukose, A. D.; Kagaayi, J.

2026-08-06 hiv aids 10.64898/2026.08.04.26359666 medRxiv
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Abstract Background: HIV self-testing (HIVST) has been promoted as a strategy to reach individuals who do not access facility-based testing. However, evidence on whether HIVST leads to more frequent testing among women of reproductive age in Uganda remains limited. This study evaluated the impact of HIV self-testing on recent HIV testing among women using nationally representative data. Methods: Data were drawn from the 2022 Uganda Demographic and Health Survey (UDHS), including 6,438 women aged 15-49 years. The primary outcome was recent HIV testing, defined as having tested for HIV within the 12 months preceding the survey. The treatment variable was ever having used HIV self-testing. Propensity score matching (PSM) with 1:1 nearest neighbour matching (caliper = 0.05) was used to balance observed covariates including parity, media exposure, education, residence, wealth quintile, health insurance, and age group. The average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) was estimated. Results: Among 6,438 women, 23.87% (1,537) reported ever using HIV self-testing. Recent HIV testing was observed in 67.4% of HIVST users compared to 47.4% of non-users (unmatched difference = 20%). After matching, HIVST use increased the likelihood of recent testing by 15.6 percent (ATT = 15.6%; SE = 0.052; t = 2.99). Covariate balance was achieved post-matching, with mean bias reduced from 20.5% to 0.7%, and the B statistic falling from 50.4% to 2.5% (below the 25% threshold). All standardized differences were substantially reduced, with education showing perfect balance (100% reduction) and wealth showing 97.6% reduction. Conclusion: HIV self-testing significantly increases recent HIV testing among women of reproductive age in Uganda. Expanding access to HIVST, particularly for women with lower education, those in poorer wealth quintiles, and those without media exposure, could improve testing frequency and support progress toward the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets.